markets

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=59.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=67.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.81%

Polymarket top market 'Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=4.60%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: magic vs TheMongolz (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bytedance have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs FURIA (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=20.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 11?': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=95.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)': YES=39.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 11?': YES=35.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Brandon Nakashima': YES=31.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=21.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs B8 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 11?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=33.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 11?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=76.00%

Polymarket top market 'ITF koksijde: Jelle Sels vs Lars Goran Verwerft': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=5.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=40.30%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group': YES=82.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=94.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?': YES=6.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 11?': YES=0.10%