markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks': YES=63.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa: Both Teams to Score': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?': YES=76.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima': YES=68.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
Polymarket top market 'Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5': YES=96.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-12Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?': YES=58.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 9z vs paiN (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Will Aston Villa win on 2026-08-12?
Polymarket top market 'Will Aston Villa win on 2026-08-12?': YES=3.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Polymarket top market 'Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres': YES=52.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
Polymarket top market 'Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics': YES=95.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-12Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
Polymarket top market 'Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs MOUZ (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=32.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa: O/U 3.5': YES=63.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?': YES=88.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs FURIA (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=67.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?': YES=80.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=9.50%
market:polymarket