markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=27.72%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=95.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?': YES=19.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=90.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=46.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=46.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%

Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-08-13?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will PAOK win on 2026-08-13?': YES=4.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?': YES=41.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Adrian Mannarino': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?': YES=9.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Universitatea Craiova CS vs. Kuopion PS: O/U 3.5': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims)': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Solary vs Vitality.Bee - Game 2 Winner': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed have between 50 and 69 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?': YES=0.10%