markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=90.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=47.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=47.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=59.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Polymarket top market 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=34.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?': YES=85.00%

Polymarket top market 'Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants': YES=41.00%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=18.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?': YES=85.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Paris Saint-Germain (-1.5)': YES=34.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.30%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=3.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=47.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 13?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain 0 - 0 Aston Villa?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.70%