markets

Polymarket/Manifold/Kalshi

2,661 events on 2026-08-14role: thematic30d fetch windowcadence: contextaccess: keyless

Extracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt

Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.

Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.

Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data

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2026-08-14Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%
NVDAmarket:manifold
2026-08-14Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=39.43%
NVDAmarket:manifold
2026-08-14Will Australia win?
Polymarket top market 'Will Australia win?': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C': YES=37.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?': YES=37.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 14?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 14?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?': YES=81.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 10-16?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 10-16?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?': YES=0.10%
TSLAmarket:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?
Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on August 14?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on August 14?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner': YES=3.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 14?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 14?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Polymarket top market 'Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=13.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Polymarket top market 'Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=13.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=69.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 14?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 14?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=23.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 14?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 14?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Polymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group
Polymarket top market 'LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?': YES=71.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)
Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)': YES=59.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C': YES=65.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Astana: Sergey Fomin vs Masamichi Imamura
Polymarket top market 'Astana: Sergey Fomin vs Masamichi Imamura': YES=96.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=57.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage
Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Feyenoord win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Polymarket top market 'Will Feyenoord win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group
Polymarket top market 'LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?': YES=7.90%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarket
2026-08-14UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=76.00%
market:polymarket