markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=16.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2031?': YES=43.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2034?': YES=57.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=49.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2041?': YES=74.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2047?': YES=82.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2043?': YES=77.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.93%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2042?': YES=75.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2035?': YES=64.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2048?': YES=84.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=56.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2046?': YES=81.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2045?': YES=80.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=41.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=36.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=22.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=8.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?': YES=16.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026?': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?': YES=7.88%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=11.68%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=7.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?': YES=25.46%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?': YES=14.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI Astra beat Opus 5 on Artificial Analysis': YES=50.26%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=2.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=15.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?': YES=23.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=77.38%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=94.13%