markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?': YES=19.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=90.87%

Manifold consensus on 'AI chip to 1 GW in 100 days before 2032?': YES=62.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=46.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=39.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=44.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=6.98%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.49%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 15?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims)': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 15?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?': YES=5.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner': YES=72.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=85.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 15?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bournemouth win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Brentford win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?': YES=23.00%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Taylor Townsend vs Elena Rybakina': YES=29.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?': YES=80.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=93.00%