markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=27.72%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=95.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?': YES=19.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=90.87%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=46.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=39.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=44.00%

Manifold consensus on 'In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=6.98%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.49%

Polymarket top market 'Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=61.50%

Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Charles Johnson vs. Eduardo Chapolin (Catchweight, Prelims)': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Terence Atmane vs Tomas Etcheverry': YES=63.00%

Polymarket top market 'Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=87.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Team Spirit Win the CS2 EWC 2026?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants': YES=39.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 16?': YES=97.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Konyaspor vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Eric McConico vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Early Prelims)': YES=26.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=6.10%