markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=59.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=44.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=45.18%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=6.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=39.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=23.19%

Polymarket top market 'Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?': YES=97.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?': YES=3.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?': YES=15.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=23.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Málaga CF win on 2026-08-19?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Vietnam vs. Malaysia: O/U 3.5': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Vietnam vs. Malaysia: O/U 1.5': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=34.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August?': YES=6.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?': YES=6.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=74.20%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?': YES=88.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 20?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?': YES=98.70%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Team Heretics Academy - Game 1 Winner': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik': YES=35.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-08-19?': YES=72.00%

Polymarket top market 'Games Total: O/U 2.5': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?': YES=15.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 20?': YES=67.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.40%