markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2027?': YES=66.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Sam Altman (co)found a GPU chip fab company by 2025?': YES=14.98%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2025 (gpu)': YES=64.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?': YES=82.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will a GPU the same or smaller die size as b100 achieve 2x or better max throughput on GPT-oss-120b?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?': YES=44.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=54.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=75.64%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=25.02%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=39.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)': YES=71.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?': YES=66.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?': YES=37.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=37.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2031?': YES=45.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?': YES=26.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2031?': YES=53.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?': YES=73.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=14.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=30.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=63.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Anthropic reaches $1T+ valuation before OpenAI?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2026?': YES=93.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public in 2026?': YES=15.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?': YES=62.30%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?': YES=82.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI reaches 250GW compute capacity by EOY 2033?': YES=16.06%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=10.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=3.63%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=13.33%

Manifold consensus on '1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.': YES=77.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=11.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?': YES=7.16%