markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=15.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2031?': YES=52.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?': YES=32.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before September 15th 2027?': YES=17.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before October 1st 2027?': YES=16.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=33.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=10.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=63.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?': YES=22.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?': YES=66.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI Astra beat Opus 5 on Artificial Analysis': YES=81.44%

Manifold consensus on 'Anthropic reaches $1T+ valuation before OpenAI?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?': YES=62.30%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=9.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=3.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?': YES=82.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI becomes public company in 2027 or sooner?': YES=83.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release its Astra model to the US general public before 2027?': YES=83.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=10.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?': YES=6.57%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=12.57%

Manifold consensus on '1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.': YES=80.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=8.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=15.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?': YES=23.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=77.38%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=94.13%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year?': YES=2.61%

Manifold consensus on 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?': YES=3.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the purchase of 3k NVIDIA H100 chips through Saudi's KAUST lead to a functional form of generative AI by June 2024?': YES=14.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?': YES=8.02%