Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets dated July 24, 2026, shed light on ASML's near-term outlook...
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets dated July 24, 2026, shed light on ASML's near-term outlook and risks.
confidence score
Usable evidence: enough corroboration to publish, with 1 independent source class.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets dated July 24, 2026, shed light on ASML's near-term outlook and risks. The market strongly believes ASML maintains its EUV monopoly: 96.17% chance it is the sole EUV producer by end 2024 (source 9), 79.92% remain only producer until end 2026 (source 1), and 70.76% until end 2027 (source 4). Revenue growth is also highly expected: 83.77% probability of yearly revenue increase for next 5 years (source 3). However, significant risks emerge: 50% chance US forces ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (source 8) and 43% chance US cuts ASML off from Cymer before 2030 (source 5). Chinese domestic EUV invention is seen as possible: 56.45% by 2030 (source 7). Despite these, China currently does not have an ASML EUV machine (15.65% chance, source 2) and no evidence of sales to China in 2023 (6.28%, source 10). Overall, the market sees ASML's monopoly and revenue as strong, but with mounting regulatory and competitive pressures.
What the sources said
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.65%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=70.76%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.