Prediction markets on Manifold as of June 23, 2026 strongly indicate ASML's dominant position in EUV lithography is...

Prediction markets on Manifold as of June 23, 2026 strongly indicate ASML's dominant position in EUV lithography is expected to continue. The probability that ASML remains the world's only producer of EUV machines through end of 2026 is 79.92% Source 2, and through end of 2027 is 69.43% Source 4. The market also assigns an 83.77% chance that ASML's revenue will increase every year for the next 5 years Source 3. Meanwhile, the probability that China currently possesses an ASML EUV machine is only 16.08% Source 1, and evidence of EUV sales to China in 2023 is just 6.28% Source 8. The chance China invents a domestic version by 2030 is 56.45% Source 6. ASML's monopoly status by end of 2024 is seen as near-certain (96.17%) Source 7. These aggregated beliefs support a strong competitive moat for ASML, benefiting its customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel) while constraining Chinese competitors like SMIC. The outlook is positive for ASML's revenue and market share.