Prediction market data from Manifold Markets as of June 25, 2026 indicates strong consensus that ASML will retain its...

Prediction market data from Manifold Markets as of June 25, 2026 indicates strong consensus that ASML will retain its monopoly in EUV lithography and grow revenue. The market assigns a 79.92% probability that ASML remains the world's only producer of EUV machines through end of 2026 (Source 2), and 69.43% through end of 2027 (Source 4). Additionally, the probability that China has obtained an ASML EUV machine is only 16.70% (Source 1), and evidence of ASML selling EUV to China in 2023 is at 6.28% (Source 8). Revenue growth outlook is strong: 83.77% probability that ASML's revenue increases every year for the next 5 years (Source 3). A potential risk is China developing its own EUV by 2030 (56.45% probability, Source 6), but near-term competitive threats remain low. These consensus probabilities reinforce ASML's dominant market position and signal continued pricing power and order visibility, benefiting key customers TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, while limiting options for Chinese fabs like SMIC.