Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets as of June 29, 2026 indicate strong market belief in ASML's...

Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets as of June 29, 2026 indicate strong market belief in ASML's continued dominance in EUV lithography. The probability that ASML remains the world's only producer of EUV machines through end of 2026 is 79.92% (source), and through 2027 it is 69.43% (source). The consensus that ASML was a monopoly in EUV lithography by end of 2024 stands at 96.17% (source). Additionally, the probability that China has obtained an ASML EUV machine is only 16.70% (source), and the chance of evidence of ASML selling an EUV machine to China in 2023 is 6.28% (source). The likelihood that China invents a domestic EUV equivalent by 2030 is 56.45% (source), implying a significant chance of eventual competition but not before the decade ends. Revenue growth confidence is high: 83.77% probability that ASML's revenue increases every year for five years (source). The probability that the US forces ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 is about 50% (source), indicating moderate regulatory risk. Collectively, these prediction prices suggest the market views ASML's competitive moat as durable through at least 2026-2027, with limited near-term disruption from Chinese self-sufficiency or export bans. This supports a positive outlook for ASML's near-term market position and pricing power in EUV equipment.