Multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets as of June 19, 2026, indicate sustained confidence in ASML's dominance...

Multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets as of June 19, 2026, indicate sustained confidence in ASML's dominance in EUV lithography. The probability that ASML remains the world's sole producer of EUV machines through end of 2026 is 79.86% (source 2), and through end of 2027 is 69.43% (source 4). The chance that China has an ASML EUV machine is only 11.57% (source 1), and evidence of ASML selling EUV to China in 2023 is at 6.28% (source 8). ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years is predicted at 83.77% (source 3). These probabilities suggest the market sees no near-term competitive threat or forced sales to China, reinforcing ASML's pricing power and long-term revenue visibility. The signal is low confidence as it relies solely on prediction market data, not official disclosures. However, the consistency across multiple questions points to a persistent positive sentiment around ASML's monopoly position.