Multiple prediction markets on Manifold indicate low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in advanced...
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold indicate low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in advanced semiconductor manufacturing by 2024 (4.61%) or 2028 (15.39%), and only 11% chance of achieving 3nm before 2026 (source 1, source 2, source 3, source 4). Additionally, a 55.85% probability that key talent Liang Mong-Song may leave SMIC within 5 years (source 5). These aggregated market signals suggest widening technology gap, potential talent retention issues, and diminished competitive position for SMIC relative to TSMC and the broader leading-edge foundry ecosystem.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold indicate low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in advanced semiconductor manufacturing by 2024 (4.61%) or 2028 (15.39%), and only 11% chance of achieving 3nm before 2026 (source 1, source 2, source 3, source 4). Additionally, a 55.85% probability that key talent Liang Mong-Song may leave SMIC within 5 years (source 5). These aggregated market signals suggest widening technology gap, potential talent retention issues, and diminished competitive position for SMIC relative to TSMC and the broader leading-edge foundry ecosystem.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.