markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Groq chip inspire Nvidia/AMD to produce radically new AI chips before 2026?': YES=2.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?': YES=77.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=45.87%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=34.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=16.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Nvidia Stock close higher in Feb than Jan': YES=43.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=7.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=29.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=26.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=26.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=54.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=13.08%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=2.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the 2026 CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform Nvidia / NVDA over the next 6 months?': YES=50.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=13.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=31.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=62.81%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=9.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be permitted to sell its Blackwell chips (B30A, B300, etc.) directly to China, before May 2026?': YES=4.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVDA (Nvidia) close April 2026 above $170?': YES=97.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=8.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=25.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=7.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%