markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=25.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?': YES=28.09%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=32.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2027?': YES=79.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=60.49%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?': YES=35.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?': YES=76.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be worth less than $250 billion (in Jan 2025 dollars) at any point before 2030?': YES=12.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO by 2030?': YES=79.63%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030': YES=33.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI Reach $100B in total profit by the end of 2027?': YES=23.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be one of the top 5 most valuable companies before 2040?': YES=37.94%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI flips the script and buys or takes over Microsoft by mid 2031': YES=7.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be acquired by 2040?': YES=27.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO by 2040?': YES=83.18%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI disappear before 2034?': YES=30.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be valued more than a trillion dollar at anytime before 2034?': YES=86.89%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040?': YES=28.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI worth more than Microsoft by mid 2029': YES=20.31%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI collapses or gets acquired before IPO?': YES=9.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2028?': YES=82.85%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=28.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=33.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=32.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=88.62%

Manifold consensus on 'AI chip to 1 GW in 100 days before 2032?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI inference chips be MUCH larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=56.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?': YES=19.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year?': YES=2.61%

Manifold consensus on 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?': YES=3.49%