markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.93%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=19.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=25.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=72.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=80.15%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?': YES=40.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?': YES=2.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?': YES=14.50%

Polymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?': YES=70.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=20.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by May 31?': YES=5.20%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.90%

Polymarket top market 'Tush Push banned for 2026 NFL Season?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?': YES=3.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=16.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ryan Flaherty be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies?': YES=3.00%