markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.93%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=19.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=25.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=72.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=80.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA market cap exceed 10 trillion USD at any point in time before January 1, 2030?': YES=74.27%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?': YES=29.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?': YES=2.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=9.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?': YES=68.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.50%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5)': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?': YES=31.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=16.80%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=16.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.70%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner': YES=92.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jakob Glesnes win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.80%