markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.93%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=19.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=25.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=72.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=80.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA market cap exceed 10 trillion USD at any point in time before January 1, 2030?': YES=74.27%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs': YES=97.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays': YES=41.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=28.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=16.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=24.40%