markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=72.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=80.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=33.02%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=16.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=17.56%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=28.15%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1?': YES=98.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01?': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?': YES=35.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=98.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election': YES=88.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=6.60%

Polymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?': YES=17.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?': YES=71.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Knicks vs. Spurs': YES=36.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=21.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?': YES=20.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?': YES=81.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.60%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?': YES=13.00%