markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
- 2026-06-03Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%
NVDAmarket:manifold - 2026-06-03Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%
NVDAmarket:manifold - 2026-06-03Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros
Polymarket top market 'Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros': YES=89.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider': YES=89.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-03Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)': YES=90.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-03Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02?
Polymarket top market 'Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election': YES=75.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-03US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?': YES=28.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-03Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?': YES=32.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-03Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5
Polymarket top market 'Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election': YES=26.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-03Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5': YES=73.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?': YES=3.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-03Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?': YES=79.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?': YES=3.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-03Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-03Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?': YES=11.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-03Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs
Polymarket top market 'Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs': YES=99.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-03Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Polymarket top market 'Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals': YES=64.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-03Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=6.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks': YES=88.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-03Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-03Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by June 30?': YES=25.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?': YES=73.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=98.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=64.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-03Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics
Polymarket top market 'Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-03Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-03Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves
Polymarket top market 'Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=35.30%
market:polymarket