markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.93%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=72.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Dominika Salkova': YES=62.00%

Polymarket top market 'San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox': YES=90.00%

Polymarket top market 'Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Giorgia Pedone': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by June 30?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?': YES=39.40%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?': YES=31.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?': YES=3.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=4.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=98.20%

Polymarket top market 'Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5': YES=44.00%