markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=73.44%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Spurs (-6.5)': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by June 30?': YES=3.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=53.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5?': YES=9.60%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alberta join the US?': YES=4.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?': YES=74.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=44.90%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1': YES=63.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?': YES=2.90%

Polymarket top market 'Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by June 30?': YES=19.10%

Polymarket top market 'Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Ashlyn Krueger': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=98.60%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kamaru Usman be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?': YES=2.70%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kelsey Plum have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?': YES=0.85%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner': YES=87.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lindsey Horvath win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=46.40%