markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
- 2026-06-05Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%
NVDAmarket:manifold - 2026-06-05Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%
NVDAmarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=73.44%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%
NVDAmarket:manifold- 2026-06-05Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5?': YES=83.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=44.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?': YES=40.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Barça eSports vs Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-05Iran leadership change by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by June 30?': YES=4.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-05Will Alberta join the US?
Polymarket top market 'Will Alberta join the US?': YES=4.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-05US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=28.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-05Spread: Spurs (-6.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Spurs (-6.5)': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1': YES=31.00%
NRGmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=52.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-05Will China PR win on 2026-06-05?
Polymarket top market 'Will China PR win on 2026-06-05?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-05Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05?
Polymarket top market 'Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05?': YES=26.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli': YES=32.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-05Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-05Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by June 30?': YES=18.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kamaru Usman be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-05Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Kelsey Plum have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?': YES=0.95%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-05Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket