markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=73.44%
NVDAmarket:manifold- 2026-06-07Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%
NVDAmarket:manifold - 2026-06-07Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%
NVDAmarket:manifold Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-07Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?': YES=47.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=63.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=53.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs': YES=41.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-07Iran leadership change by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by June 30?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=5.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?': YES=3.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=50.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7?': YES=4.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-07Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by June 30?': YES=18.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-07Will Alberta join the US?
Polymarket top market 'Will Alberta join the US?': YES=4.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-07Trump out as President by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by June 30?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?': YES=19.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-07Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=47.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?': YES=31.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?': YES=2.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?': YES=80.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-07Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=68.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs': YES=84.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=32.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-07Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket