markets

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts': YES=68.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?': YES=51.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=8.18%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?': YES=72.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?': YES=29.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=39.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=14.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=77.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2035?': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAi have a valuation of $1 trillion by the end of 2027?': YES=80.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the @anthropic-ai/sdk npm package have more weekly downloads than the openai npm package during any 7-day period be': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?': YES=63.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a "Search" feature that replaces ChatGPT's default interface before July 1, 2026?': YES=15.35%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Announces that its CEO/Leader will have AI components (Software + human or alone) by mid 2026': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk and OpenAI announce a settlement in their federal lawsuit before July 1, 2026?': YES=1.38%

Manifold consensus on 'Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2026?': YES=96.66%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?': YES=8.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1July 2026 (23:59 UTC)?': YES=5.94%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026': YES=17.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?': YES=32.33%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?': YES=63.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access?': YES=23.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month?': YES=11.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI overtake Anthropic in Valuation before 2028': YES=63.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?': YES=42.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple announce a major AI model partnership (e.g., OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic) at WWDC 2026?': YES=69.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%