markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=28.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=2.06%

Polymarket top market 'Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Ecuador?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Austin Reaves play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=46.80%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Ecuador?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.30%

Polymarket top market 'Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5': YES=84.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=80.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=17.10%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In': YES=95.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals': YES=99.40%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Ecuador?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Ecuador?': YES=4.70%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: England (-1.5)': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners': YES=43.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will United States win on 2026-07-01?': YES=71.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Ecuador?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?': YES=28.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves': YES=91.50%