markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?': YES=30.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-01Belgium vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score
Polymarket top market 'Belgium vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score': YES=68.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-01Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=18.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5': YES=84.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-01Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=6.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=5.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=35.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-01Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-01Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance': YES=39.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-01Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-01Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?
Polymarket top market 'Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-01Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?
Polymarket top market 'Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=3.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=15.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=7.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=12.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=20.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarket