markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=1.23%

Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=10.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Owen Caissie win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=3.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 2?': YES=69.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 2?': YES=97.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Kansas City Royals win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Austria?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 2?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Austria?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Austin Reaves play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?': YES=18.75%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=7.30%

Polymarket top market 'Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance': YES=69.75%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Switzerland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=35.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=3.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Alliance vs NIP (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=33.00%