markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
Polymarket top market 'Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?
Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?': YES=84.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=67.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=26.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?': YES=26.25%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kingston Flemings win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=17.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 2?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 2?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?': YES=4.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will France win on 2026-07-04?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-07-04?': YES=83.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will there be 30+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Christian Anderson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?
Polymarket top market 'Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?': YES=55.75%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-02Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?
Polymarket top market 'Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?': YES=4.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Brad Ausmus be the next Red Sox manager?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Spain vs. Austria: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Austria: O/U 2.5': YES=57.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-02Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?
Polymarket top market 'Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will no listed leader be out before 2027?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff': YES=68.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance': YES=87.25%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=80.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance': YES=92.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will a player representing Switzerland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?': YES=74.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-02Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-02Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-02Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?
Polymarket top market 'Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?': YES=47.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-02Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta': YES=40.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket