markets

Polymarket/Manifold/Kalshi

2,697 events on 2026-07-04role: thematic30d fetch windowcadence: contextaccess: keyless

Extracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt

Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.

Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.

Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data

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2026-07-04Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Polymarket top market 'Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
Polymarket top market 'San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5': YES=83.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5': YES=67.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Ghana?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Ghana?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Spread: France (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-1.5)': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5
Polymarket top market 'Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Polymarket top market 'New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Ghana?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Ghana?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds
Polymarket top market 'Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?
Polymarket top market 'Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?': YES=31.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Polymarket top market 'Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will England win on 2026-07-05?
Polymarket top market 'Will England win on 2026-07-05?': YES=39.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=9.70%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals
Polymarket top market 'Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Colombia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score
Polymarket top market 'Colombia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score': YES=40.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will France win on 2026-07-04?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-07-04?': YES=83.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Ghana?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Ghana?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?': YES=26.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Katie Boulter win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
Polymarket top market 'Will Katie Boulter win the 2026 Women’s US Open?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=90.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?
Polymarket top market 'Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?': YES=52.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Ghana?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Ghana?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=6.40%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=35.30%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Polymarket top market 'Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=6.90%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=12.90%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance': YES=81.00%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=5.60%
market:polymarket
2026-07-04Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?
Polymarket top market 'Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?': YES=64.00%
market:polymarket