markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%
market:manifold- 2026-07-05Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%
NVDAmarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%
NVDAmarket:manifold- 2026-07-05Mexico vs. England: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Mexico vs. England: O/U 2.5': YES=40.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 England?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Norway?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Norway?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Norway?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Norway?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Norway?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Norway?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?': YES=2.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 5?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 5?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-05Will United States win on 2026-07-06?
Polymarket top market 'Will United States win on 2026-07-06?': YES=35.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs FaZe (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=28.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5)': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5?': YES=10.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-05Spread: England (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: England (-1.5)': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 England?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 England?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance': YES=34.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Brazil vs. Norway: Brazil O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Brazil vs. Norway: Brazil O/U 1.5': YES=56.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?': YES=3.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=56.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-05Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 England?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-05Spread: Brazil (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Brazil (-1.5)': YES=30.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Spread: Norway (-4.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Norway (-4.5)': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance': YES=86.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance': YES=50.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-05Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Norway?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Norway?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
Polymarket top market 'Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?': YES=36.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-05Spread: Norway (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Norway (-1.5)': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners
Polymarket top market 'Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners': YES=55.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-05Mexico vs. England: Both Teams to Score
Polymarket top market 'Mexico vs. England: Both Teams to Score': YES=49.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Norway?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Norway?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 5?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?': YES=5.60%
market:polymarket