markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5?': YES=24.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Norway?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs San Francisco Unicorns': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 5?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies': YES=75.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?': YES=93.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will United States win on 2026-07-06?': YES=35.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Mexico vs. England: O/U 2.5': YES=39.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=36.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=52.10%

Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance': YES=86.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance': YES=34.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=79.00%

Polymarket top market 'St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs': YES=70.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?': YES=3.60%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Norway?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket top market 'Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels': YES=84.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 England?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 5?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs': YES=6.00%