markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%
GOOGLmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%
GOOGLmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?': YES=17.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14?': YES=96.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=35.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Spread: Spain (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Spain (-1.5)': YES=12.96%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-14France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5': YES=79.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-14Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Dylan Dietrich
Polymarket top market 'Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Dylan Dietrich': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: eSuba vs Misa Esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=44.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?': YES=3.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel': YES=89.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival': YES=51.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner': YES=62.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Iasi Open: Dominika Salkova vs Alevtina Ibragimova': YES=21.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival': YES=8.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 15?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mookie Betts win the 2026 National League MVP Award?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=79.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=6.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 14?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance': YES=55.25%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 14?': YES=43.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Spain?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 14?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Spread: France (-2.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-2.5)': YES=6.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Swedish Open: Facundo Acosta vs Lautaro Midon': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?': YES=10.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?': YES=31.25%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-14Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=4.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-14Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Spain?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-14France vs. Spain: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: O/U 1.5': YES=76.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarket