markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=46.60%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=98.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5': YES=31.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Any Other Score?': YES=4.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Argentina (-2.5)': YES=2.80%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5': YES=9.75%

Polymarket top market 'England leading at halftime?': YES=28.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Argentina?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=3.90%

Polymarket top market 'ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Argentina (-1.5)': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Argentina?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.40%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: England (-3.5)': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'ODI Series Ireland vs West Indies, Women: Ireland vs West Indies': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals': YES=4.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Lionel Messi: 1+ goals': YES=38.00%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Granby: Liam Draxl vs James Kent Trotter': YES=38.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=7.30%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Argentina?': YES=17.00%