markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Istanbul 2: Harmony Tan vs Anastasia Gasanova': YES=90.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=44.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?': YES=12.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?': YES=33.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Spread: England (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: England (-1.5)': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Argentina?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Argentina?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Will the Philadelphia Phillies have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Philadelphia Phillies have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: G2 Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Argentina?': YES=3.80%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5': YES=67.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ebuka Okorie win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Argentina?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Argentina?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=36.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Team Secret vs Sentinels (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Iasi Open: Ilinca Amariei vs Elsa Jacquemot': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival': YES=49.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs GAM Esports (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: AG.AL vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=95.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Argentina?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?': YES=31.75%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5': YES=39.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Will England win on 2026-07-15?
Polymarket top market 'Will England win on 2026-07-15?': YES=35.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=22.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=19.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=58.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket