markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5': YES=89.25%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=46.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=58.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?': YES=4.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?': YES=5.10%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 15?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 15?': YES=99.40%

Polymarket top market 'China x Philippines military clash before 2027?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: England (-3.5)': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=27.60%

Polymarket top market 'Lincoln: Darwin Blanch vs Bernard Tomic': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=58.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?': YES=6.80%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5': YES=21.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?': YES=91.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner': YES=67.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=38.00%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners': YES=47.00%

Polymarket top market 'England leading at halftime?': YES=28.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 15?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 15?': YES=87.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Cordenons: Peter Makk vs Thiago Seyboth Wild': YES=33.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%