markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: G2 Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A': YES=79.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?
Polymarket top market 'World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 15?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Argentina?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=53.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Spread: England (-2.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: England (-2.5)': YES=4.12%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Trump out as President by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by July 31?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'NBA Summer League: LA Lakers vs. LA Clippers': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Argentina?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?': YES=55.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=33.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Argentina?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=7.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=4.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?': YES=33.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=51.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=17.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Spread: England (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: England (-1.5)': YES=14.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Argentina?': YES=3.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?': YES=15.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Argentina?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Argentina?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Argentina?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5': YES=67.68%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Will the Philadelphia Phillies have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Philadelphia Phillies have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Argentina?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival': YES=72.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=36.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Iasi Open: Ilinca Amariei vs Elsa Jacquemot': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket