markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=60.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA market cap exceed 10 trillion USD at any point in time before January 1, 2030?': YES=74.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=72.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=78.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=51.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Fnatic vs GIANTX - Map 1 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?': YES=41.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 The Open Championship?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?': YES=91.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 0 England?': YES=4.60%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=16.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: NIP vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?': YES=8.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Detroit Tigers have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=65.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: G2 NORD vs Team Orange Gaming (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 0 - 1 England?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 16?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 1 England?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. England: O/U 6.5': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?': YES=1.90%