markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA market cap exceed 10 trillion USD at any point in time before January 1, 2030?': YES=74.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=72.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=78.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'China x Philippines military clash before 2027?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President before 2027?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?': YES=13.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?': YES=84.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 The Open Championship?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?': YES=93.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.60%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=21.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=11.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=5.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 13-19?': YES=2.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=3.80%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?': YES=67.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=72.00%

Polymarket top market 'China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?': YES=6.60%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=98.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.50%