markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will EU achieve 15% market share in semiconductors before 2030?': YES=12.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?': YES=39.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?': YES=73.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2027 exceed 12 USD billion?': YES=57.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2027 exceed 8 USD billion?': YES=66.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2027 exceed 6 USD billion?': YES=65.89%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2028 exceed 8 USD billion?': YES=66.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2028 exceed 6 USD billion?': YES=66.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2026?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 12 USD billion?': YES=47.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 8 USD billion?': YES=57.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 4 USD billion?': YES=65.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026': YES=31.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?': YES=87.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 6 USD billion?': YES=55.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2027?': YES=66.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Sam Altman (co)found a GPU chip fab company by 2025?': YES=14.98%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2025 (gpu)': YES=64.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?': YES=82.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will a GPU the same or smaller die size as b100 achieve 2x or better max throughput on GPT-oss-120b?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?': YES=44.40%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=56.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=22.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts': YES=68.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?': YES=51.36%

Manifold consensus on 'What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?': YES=10.91%

Manifold consensus on '4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=6.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?': YES=30.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Does Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI?': YES=13.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=74.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=13.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=53.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=64.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)': YES=71.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=6.00%