markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=68.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=6.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=6.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=64.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?': YES=95.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage': YES=41.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?': YES=99.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?': YES=4.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 21?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?': YES=70.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=9.30%

Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=3.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 21?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=29.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=24.00%