markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
- 2026-07-21Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?': YES=42.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-21Winnipeg: Rio Noguchi vs Braden Shick
Polymarket top market 'Winnipeg: Rio Noguchi vs Braden Shick': YES=58.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Winnipeg: Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan': YES=66.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage': YES=31.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage': YES=74.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=4.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-21Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-21Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 24?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=14.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=26.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 21?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=8.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Hamburg European Open: Katarzyna Kawa vs Paula Badosa': YES=40.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage': YES=32.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=13.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=43.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-21Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=38.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: M80 vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier': YES=49.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=4.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=76.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-21Minnesota Lynx vs. Seattle Storm
Polymarket top market 'Minnesota Lynx vs. Seattle Storm': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=6.60%
market:polymarket