markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-21Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-21Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?': YES=4.70%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-21Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=30.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=30.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=75.00%
NVDAmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-21Winnipeg: Fajing Sun vs Mees Rottgering
Polymarket top market 'Winnipeg: Fajing Sun vs Mees Rottgering': YES=29.80%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-21Will Larne FC win on 2026-07-21?
Polymarket top market 'Will Larne FC win on 2026-07-21?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-21Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees
Polymarket top market 'Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-21Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=12.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5': YES=45.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Jenz vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Vitality.Bee vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bukayo Saka win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-21Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 21?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 21?': YES=31.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-21Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-21Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?': YES=35.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-21Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Polymarket top market 'Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians': YES=42.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-21Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-21Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-21Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?': YES=4.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva win on 2026-07-21?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=10.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?': YES=91.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket