markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Independiente Medellín vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-07-22?
Polymarket top market 'Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-07-22?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-07-22?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 24?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=88.00%
NVDAmarket:polymarket- 2026-07-23Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics
Polymarket top market 'Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics': YES=96.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-07-22?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=34.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-07-22?
Polymarket top market 'Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-07-22?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Ei Nerd Esports vs 7REX (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=5.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=11.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'The Hundred, Women: Southern Brave vs Welsh Fire': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=41.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Ceará SC vs. CR Brasil: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Ceará SC vs. CR Brasil: O/U 2.5': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-07-22?
Polymarket top market 'Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-07-22?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?': YES=46.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Will Nashville SC win on 2026-07-22?
Polymarket top market 'Will Nashville SC win on 2026-07-22?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Trump out as President by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by July 31?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=26.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5': YES=43.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-07-22?
Polymarket top market 'Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-07-22?': YES=89.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-07-22?
Polymarket top market 'Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-07-22?': YES=96.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-23Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-07-22?
Polymarket top market 'Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-07-22?': YES=71.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket