markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=30.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=31.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: magic vs 3DMAX (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier': YES=62.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?': YES=99.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?': YES=37.00%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarket- 2026-07-24Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?': YES=16.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=33.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=10.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24?': YES=70.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?': YES=6.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=7.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=2.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=37.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-24Iran leadership change by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=4.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=6.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-24Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=47.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-24Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 24?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=77.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=25.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?': YES=38.00%
market:polymarket