markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=38.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-07-23?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?': YES=3.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5': YES=41.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 24?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=8.60%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG - Map 1 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will MH Maccabi Tel Aviv win on 2026-07-23?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=70.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=5.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?': YES=36.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?': YES=4.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?': YES=99.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nõmme Kalju FC win on 2026-07-23?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=4.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will FC St. Gallen win on 2026-07-23?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?': YES=40.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-07-23?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=4.20%

Polymarket top market 'Palermo: Dalila Spiteri vs Lucia Bronzetti': YES=3.20%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Heroic vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=29.10%