markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2039?': YES=70.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2037?': YES=66.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2034?': YES=51.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2048?': YES=83.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?': YES=43.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2031?': YES=41.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=58.13%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=97.89%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?': YES=76.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?': YES=96.33%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=6.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?': YES=22.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?': YES=98.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go bankrupt following a major AI market crash before 2030?': YES=10.45%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=16.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI ship a hardware device in 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI declare bankruptcy or be Acquired before the end of 2027?': YES=7.12%

Manifold consensus on '7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.': YES=8.85%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a criminal investigation into OpenAI over the Hugging Face breach be publicly confirmed before 2028?': YES=35.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?': YES=23.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=77.38%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=94.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?': YES=19.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year?': YES=2.61%

Manifold consensus on 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?': YES=3.49%