markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-29Will Solana reach $160 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Solana reach $160 in July?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=5.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 30?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=63.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?': YES=99.60%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarket- 2026-07-29Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?': YES=7.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 29?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-29Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-29Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-29Iran leadership change by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Vancouver: Ariana Arseneault vs Annabelle Xu': YES=88.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-29Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-29Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=86.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 29?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-29Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Liquid Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?': YES=9.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-29Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-29Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=4.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 29?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?': YES=97.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=45.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-29Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=28.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: Team to Advance': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-29Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29?': YES=76.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?': YES=33.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun: Team to Advance': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 29?': YES=98.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?': YES=96.70%
market:polymarket